AGP Executive Report

Market Balance: U.S. sellers outnumbered buyers by 62.6% in September, the widest gap in at least 13 years, giving buyers more room to negotiate as listings build and demand slips. Sales Slowdown: Southern California home sales fell to their second-slowest pace since 2005, even as prices remained near record highs. Prices and Rates: UK prices rose 0.8%, but values are falling in 35% of postcode areas; in the eurozone, 27% of banks reported weaker mortgage demand in the third quarter as higher rates and low confidence deterred borrowers. Supply and Affordability: South East Queensland land prices hit a record despite weaker buyer demand, with limited supply supporting prices. In the UK, higher shared-ownership income caps will let more households qualify. Election Watch: Three decades of New Zealand data suggest elections have little effect on house prices, though sales often pick up afterward—with no guarantee of a rebound.

First-Home Buyers: New Zealand Labour has promised rent-to-buy for some public-housing tenants, crediting $100 a week toward a deposit, and would lift the First Home Loan income cap to $300,000. Affordability Crisis: In Spain, home prices rose 84.6% from 2015 to 2025, far outpacing wage growth of 27.85%, leaving more working households struggling to rent or save for a deposit. Market Cooling: Sydney house prices fell 4.7% in the third quarter, and values dropped across every Australian capital city for the first time in 15 years. Zoopla says 35% of UK homes are in areas where prices are falling, as rising mortgage costs and more listings give buyers greater room to negotiate. Housing Supply: In Hanoi, high-end and luxury apartments made up 78% of new commercial supply in the first half of the year, while homes priced below VND25 million per square metre were nearly absent.

Housing Supply: UK new-home registrations fell 13% year over year in the third quarter to 26,231, with rental and affordable housing registrations down 23%. NHBC warns the industry is at a “critical point” as affordability pressures and delivery barriers squeeze supply. London Flats: Average inner-London flat prices dropped 8.1% in the year to August to £522,200, with Westminster down 15%. Higher mortgage rates, stamp duty and fees are adding to sellers’ difficulties. Buyer Leverage: Home sellers in the U.S. are cutting asking prices to close deals in a stagnant market, while falling prices are leaving some low-deposit buyers owing more than their homes are worth if they need to sell. Affordable Housing: Chicago’s Leland, a century-old single-room-occupancy building, was rescued from foreclosure by an affordable-housing provider, which plans renovations to preserve it for residents. First-Time Buyers: The UK’s proposed Your First Home equity-loan scheme has been welcomed as a way to support buyers and new-home demand, but the industry is seeking details on how it will work.

UK Housing Supply: New-home registrations fell 13% year over year in the third quarter, with affordable and rental projects down 23%. The government has pledged more than £1 billion for social and affordable housing, but the building slowdown threatens its 1.5 million-home target. Market Cooling: Seoul listings are nearing 80,000 as price gains ease, while a stagnant U.S. market is prompting sellers to cut prices and giving buyers more room to negotiate. Affordability: Family help remains a key route into homeownership, with young buyers increasingly relying on parents for down payments or auction bids. Planning Reform: Tasmania is considering statewide rules to make approvals for tiny homes simpler, as advocates pitch them as one response to housing pressures.

U.S. Housing Market: Sellers are cutting asking prices and offering thousands toward buyers’ costs as high mortgage rates and years of price gains keep sales sluggish. Many are stuck between accepting less and delaying a move. Property Taxes: Rising sale prices have lifted Richland County, Ohio, valuations in its 2026 update; the new values will feed into tax bills next year, though actual bills are still to come. Supply & Construction: Millions of U.S. homes sit vacant even as the housing shortage persists, while a London developer has halted a major project over its viability. The UK plans £1 billion to help build up to 10,000 council homes. Cost of Ownership: Buyers need to look beyond the mortgage payment: taxes, insurance, maintenance, closing costs and HOA fees can significantly raise the real cost of owning a home.

Mortgage Affordability: President Trump ordered agencies to pursue automatic mortgage-insurance cancellation for eligible future borrowers and a permanent program to cut refinancing costs. The savings remain unclear. Frozen Market: US home sales are about a third below their pandemic peak, while prices stay high as owners cling to low-rate mortgages and insurance and condo costs climb. First-Time Buyers: California voters will consider Prop. 37, a proposed $25 billion down-payment loan program that could let qualified buyers borrow up to 17% of a home’s price. Housing Supply: Irish industry insiders warn that ending funding for turnkey social-home purchases could slow construction from 2028, as developers rely on those guaranteed sales to secure financing. Rent Pressure: In Abuja, soaring rents and stagnant wages are pushing more residents to share apartments, turning roommates into an economic necessity. Overseas Investment: Chinese-backed luxury projects are drawing buyers in Colombo, Sri Lanka, but analysts caution that fast price rises and ambitious return promises could fuel speculation.

Buy-vs.-Rent Gap: California buyers face an estimated $6,770 monthly payment versus $2,929 in median rent; in the UK, 56% of first-time buyers now pay more on a mortgage than they did renting. Buyer Leverage: Seller concessions appeared in 44.7% of U.S. home sales in August, a six-year high, as sellers compete to cover closing costs, repairs or mortgage-rate buydowns. Property Taxes: Florida voters will decide whether to expand the homestead exemption, a proposal supporters say could ease housing costs and opponents warn may squeeze funding for local services. Rebuilding: In fire-scarred Altadena, 233 homes are complete and 3,851 building permits have been issued; some residents are returning while others are selling and leaving. Fair Housing: A Black couple is suing Douglas Elliman, an agent and property owners after allegedly receiving a racist text while seeking a Queens rental.

Housing Policy: New York City’s council passed COPA, giving nonprofits first dibs on distressed apartment buildings; Mayor Zohran Mamdani says he’ll sign it. A proposed Treasury rule could also expose corporate homebuyers to $1 million fines for failing to track receipts. Market Signals: A renovated Moonee Ponds bungalow sold for $1.375 million, nearly $500,000 above its 2022 price, while a Mosman luxury home passed in at $9.85 million with only one registered bidder—showing sharply different conditions across Australia’s market. Buyer Risks: Receivers are asking about $9 million for six unfinished Brighton homes, but completion costs remain undisclosed. Affordability & Supply: A housing freeze persists as many owners with sub-4% mortgage rates have little incentive to sell, limiting choices for buyers. Coastal Exposure: California could lose up to 75% of its beaches, putting billions of dollars in property at risk.

Investor Rules: Proposed Treasury rules would bar companies with 350 or more single-family homes from buying existing houses from Jan. 7, 2027. Violations could bring fines of at least $1 million or triple the purchase price; new construction is exempt. Affordability Measures: Trump’s new housing orders target closing and refinancing costs, mortgage insurance, manufactured homes and rates on USDA and VA loans as mortgage costs keep homeownership out of reach for many buyers. Auction Transparency: Victoria’s new reserve-price disclosure rules are pushing some agents toward private sales and open-ended campaigns, testing whether the reforms can curb underquoting. Buyer Leverage: In some markets, homes are selling at discounts as buyers negotiate harder, though affordability pressures remain acute.

Homeownership Costs: Insurance now costs more than property taxes in 75% of U.S. counties, while New Yorkers face one of the nation’s longest waits to save for a down payment. Housing Supply: U.S. new-home completions remain stuck at 2020 levels. In Rockford, a tax-abatement program has helped spur about 300 homes since 2024, as builders warn tariffs are driving up construction costs. Market Shift: Australian house prices fell in every capital for the first time in 15 years, with the steepest quarterly decline on record; Brisbane prices dropped about $66,000 in three months. Housing Policy: New York City’s Council passed a scaled-back COPA bill giving nonprofits first chance to buy some troubled buildings, but the changes cut the measure’s potential reach by nearly 80%.

U.S. Market: Wisconsin home sales fell 2.4% year over year in September as the median price rose 1.5% to $342,000. Listings increased, but agents point to higher mortgage rates as a drag on buyers. Housing Costs: Home insurance now exceeds property taxes in 75% of U.S. counties, according to a new study, adding pressure to already-stretched household budgets. Rental Pressure: San Francisco rents jumped 25.7% in a year, with one renovated two-bedroom unit asking $4,750 a month amid fierce competition from tech workers. Australia: Home prices are falling across every capital city for the first time in 15 years, as weaker buyer confidence and borrowing capacity weigh on the market. New Zealand: A report highlights lower-cost suburbs popular with younger homeowners: Wainuiomata areas have more than doubled in value over a decade, while some of the cheapest listed communities have typical prices below $400,000.

Market Downturn: Australian house prices fell across all eight capital cities for the first time in 15 years, with the combined median down 4.7% in the third quarter. Rising rates and weaker buyer confidence are also weighing on New Zealand prices, with ANZ expecting declines to continue into mid-2027. Buyer Protections: Karnataka’s RERA ruled builders cannot pass certain project costs to buyers before handover, aiming to curb surprise charges at possession. Affordable Housing: A proposed six-story, 200-unit Los Angeles development would replace a former Northridge pharmacy site, with homes aimed at households earning 30% to 80% of area median income. Rental Screening: Researchers in South Australia warned that tenant-screening platforms using AI may discriminate against applicants, with renters reporting opaque and biased decisions. Mortgage Squeeze: U.S. home-sale contracts have fallen to a record low as mortgage rates reach 7.4%, adding to affordability pressures for buyers.

U.S. Market: Pending home-sale contracts hit a record low as mortgage rates reached 7.4%, signaling a sharp pullback by buyers. Condo Shift: Developers made up nearly 45% of Toronto’s new-condo sales in the third quarter, as individual buyers pulled back. Investors are also buying unsold units at steep discounts. Rents and Prices: New Zealand rents have stabilized and the cost gap between renting and buying has narrowed, though rising mortgage rates could widen it again. Australian capital-city home prices posted their steepest quarterly decline on record, while UK annual price growth slowed for a fourth straight month.

Market Outlook: Goldman Sachs sees housing activity remaining frozen through 2027, a prolonged slump that could widen the divide between millennial homeowners and would-be buyers. Supply and Choice: New-home completions remain near 2020 levels, even as Texas buyers had more options in the third quarter. Toronto Condos: Bulk buyers made up 45% of new condo sales in the quarter, while investors are reportedly picking up unsold units at discounts of up to 40% from original prices. Affordable Ownership: Lawrence, Kansas, approved a pilot to take over and rehabilitate abandoned, blighted homes for affordable buyers; the city has identified about 3,200 vacant homes. Foreclosure Pressure: A review of 973 Tennessee notices found a median of just 34 days between notice and scheduled sale, leaving many homeowners little time to act.

Regional Market: Northwest Ohio home sales rose nearly 5% in the third quarter, with median prices reaching $224,000 and sales volume up 13%. But 30-year mortgage rates hit 7.4% in early October, squeezing buyers. Affordability: A new study finds 63% of Gen Z respondents would move to a cheaper area to buy, while just 19% would stretch their budget to stay put. Rental Trends: Renters are moving less often: Harvard data show mobility fell to 18.1% in 2024, down from 29.5% in the early 2000s, as high ownership costs and limited options keep households in place. Affordable Supply: A federal rule change could make manufactured homes cheaper and easier to build in multifamily formats, but about 30 states may need to update regulations before the potential is realized. Local Housing: A Lebanon, New Hampshire, plan for five homes on city land is in limbo after only four qualified buyers applied, leaving officials to decide whether the project can proceed.

Housing Supply: Melbourne is considering big-box retail car parks for apartments, with planning rules, parking needs and construction costs likely to determine what gets built. The state aims to add 60,000 homes near transit, jobs and services. Market Pressure: U.S. builder confidence fell to its lowest level since June 2012 as mortgage rates topped 7% and costs weighed on buyers; luxury housing remains a bright spot. Rental Squeeze: Seoul’s mayor warns that tight rental supply could push home prices higher, while national agencies expect gains to cool. Rental deposits and permit rules are fueling debate. Buyer Hesitation: In South Australia, 38% of people say rate uncertainty is delaying plans to buy or sell, while affordability is the biggest obstacle and just 17% plan to buy within a year. Condo Discounts: Investors are buying unsold Toronto condos at discounts of up to 40% from original prices, a sign of pressure in the city’s apartment market.